An Underwriters’ Guide to Cyber Risk: Managing 3rd Party Risk – Part 1

Due to the length of this detailed topic, it will be broken into multiple parts. One of the reasons this post is so long is the extreme entrenchment of incorrect views, and therefore, a need to provide detailed explanations of why they are wrong.

As written about earlier, Warren Buffet is one of the worst out there when it comes to spreading misinformation and unnecessary alarm about cyber security risks. He’s not the only one, however. There seems to be an incessant and rather insane cry of “Well, there are third party risks and they could be systemic. Lets throw our hands up in the air and say there is nothing we can do.”

Of course, this is not the case, in the finite and artificial world of cyber security, no risk is insurmountable and all can be understood. Third party risks come from the fact that so many organizations are dependent on various third parties, such as vendors and contractors. Even clients and customers can be a third party risk, because some organizations rely on a relatively limited number of clients.

In this video-accompanied post, I will do my best to provide detailed information to refute this dangerous and deeply entrenched idea.

Lets be clear on something, this is not new or unique to cyber:
There is nothing new or novel about this concept at all. Some policyholders have always been dependent on a limited number of vendors or service providers. Even in the years before cyber security, a major failing of the power grid, as happened in 2003 and 1977, can cause widespread loss across a large area. A single storm can impact a huge area, or a bad hurricane season can bring devastating storms to a large area. That’s what a systemic risk is.

However, in cyber security, all systemic risks can easily be detected ahead of time, if we care to look. They’re artificial, based on the relationships we choose to have and the artificial, man-made, engineered systems we use with the human-created, anthropogenic, artificial, man-made, ARTIFICIAL RISKS. And therefore finite and easy to understand. It’s always easy to know your risks, when they are in engineered systems you own, right?

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How To Underwrite Cyber Insurance Properly

Because the artificial risk of cyber-attacks Is So controllable, Cyber Insurance can be a reliable cash cow, but it we must rethink what cyber risk is and what role cyber insurance plays. Doing so unlocks the door to billions of dollars in potential profits. Currently, nobody in the entire insurance sector knows how to do this and nobody does it properly.

The term for what we are living through is moral crisis.

Last year, the world lost hundreds of billions of dollars to cyber attacks and trillions were lost to the total economic impact of these attacks.  The biggest problem is ransomware, but business email compromise, leading to fund transfer fraud and other types of account interception and social engineering fraud are also costing the economy billions.  Every week, we hear about more police forces, hospitals, schools and critical institutions being attacked.  Ransom is frequently paid.  Lives have even been lost.  It’s no longer possible to rely on your doctor, lawyer, police force or fire department to be there for you and not leak your private information.

And then we have cyber insurance, which keeps paying ransom and racking up losses, insisting that “cyber is just inherently high loss” or “cyber incidents are like earthquakes: unpredictable and unstoppable.”  We see top ranking executives, even the likes of Warren Buffet saying that it is expected that cyber insurance will lose money.  It will because cyber risks are just big risks and we don’t know how to control them.  Also, we don’t have enough data, and perhaps in a few years we will be able to figure out how to price it.

As an expert in cyber security, ransomware especially, with an education in cyber security and over 20 years of experience, I cannot stress this enough: THIS IS INSANE!

Cybercrimes are just that: crimes.  Like all crimes, they are human created and can be stopped. Cyber security is not some oddball unfigured-out kind of thing.  It’s just bad guys breaking into our systems because we do not institute strong enough controls.  The idea that cyber criminals are so much smarter than our best engineers is absurd.  It’s the year 2024 and the US has the best technology in the world.  None of this needs to happen.  We could shut this down in a day, if there were proper experts involved.

There has been a massive misunderstanding of the nature of cyber risk by the insurance sector, and in doing so we have entrenches a monster which is sapping hundreds of billions of dollars out of the legitimate economy and is funding terrorism.  The history of cyber insurance is a comedy of errors.  There’s a reason no legitimate cyber risk experts should not have been consulted from day one, but there was a belief that cyber was simply a shiny object that could be monetized to appeal to the digital age. Insurers have been trying to sell cyber insurance without investing a dime in understanding it. They’ve simply broken something they don’t understand and now consider it a lost cause. This is absurd.

The truth is simple: If not for the fact that cyber insurance has come along and decided to encourage bad behavior, while funding crime, we would not have the ransomware problem we do. Our hospitals would be safe. Our schools would be safe. Our emergency services would not be targeted. The problem cannot currently be solved, because insurance companies stubbornly insist that they don’t want to, but are fine paying out ransoms.

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