It’s far from certain, and there are a few cases that appear to be legitimate drone sightings, but a large number also appear to be civilian aircraft or other mistakes. At least some, thought perhaps not all reports are a case of panic.
If you have not been living under a rock, you are probably aware that people around New Jersey, and now elsewhere are up in arms over reported sightings of drones. Drone sightings are not at all unusual in the year 2024, but these include reports of drones over sensitive military facilities and critical infrastructure, such as reservoirs and power plants. These reports started coming in around November 13th and have gotten more and more extreme as time has gone on.
At present, a number of elected officials, such as mayors, the governor and police chiefs have voices concern. A great deal of drama is now under way, while officials are demanding answers from the FBI, military or others. Many are calling for the drones to be shot down.
The problem is we still don’t actually have any answers as to what is happening and the reports are fragmented and inconsistent. With time, confusion has only increased and primary evidence of documentation has been lacking.
Now similar reports are being made across the Northeast. At first it was claimed that the drones were “spreading to New York.” Now they claim to have been seen across the Northeast and the US in general.
Here is what seems to have been reported:
- It has been reported that the drones are only out at night, reportedly appearing at dusk and not being seen during the day.
- Many of the drones have lights on them, in some cases the lights are strobes or other standard hazard and navigational lights.
- There have been reports of bright lights and drones that are highly visible and not trying to be stealthy.
- The drones have been reported over restricted areas, such as Trump-owned property, military installations and airports.
- Air traffic, including a medical helicopter have had to be diverted due to concerns over drone collisions.
- Their origin, flight paths and landing locations remains elusive.
- There are unconfirmed reports of drones switching off lights or otherwise trying to hide when pursued.
- Many have claimed that the drones are enormous in size, frequently described as the size of an SUV or larger.
- Reports imply the same drones remain in the sky for hours and travel great distances.
It should be noted that such large and capable drones do exist and are available for purchase. The reports of drones “The size of an SUV” or “8 feet in diameter,” if true, do imply that these are not consumer drones, but rather larger, higher capacity drones. Such drones do exist and are used in agriculture, surveying and other professional pursuits. It’s also possible that a large experimental drone could be constructed by hobbyists, as parts and supplies to build large drones do exist.
If these reports are to be taken at face value, they seem to have a number of strange paradoxes. If these drones are up to no good or trying to hide their activities, why are there so many lights? If they are not afraid of being seen and tracked, why only appear at night? If they looking to acquire intelligence, why New Jersey and why is most of their time spent over residential areas? Where are they launched from.
At present, this has all the hallmarks of mass hysteria and seems to fit the pattern of previous UFO crazes and other such events. One thing that should be kept in mind is that human beings are pretty bad observers, especially when excited. It’s extremely difficult to judge speed, altitude or scale with flying objects, though they can create very convincing illusions. Although many have claimed that the objects were huge, few have elaborated as to how they could tell. Unless it was very very low flying or the person had multiple vantage points, it is likely they could not tell this in any reliable way.
It is noteworthy that there has been a huge lack of primary evidence of any kind. While public officials and news reporters have been getting more and more excited, nobody has a clear cell phone video that shows a large drone. No radar data has been published. There are few officially verifiable reports at all.
What these reported drone aircraft are not:
- These are not UFO’s in the sense that they are not of alien origin.
- The drones seen are not US military aircraft. The military has denied having any drone assets in the area, and while it is possible that the military would conduct operations in secret, in this case, it would not make sense for such attention-drawing activity to happen without some kind of cover story.
- They do not appear to be associated with any state or federal agency.
- It is unlikely that they are the result of any private entity of any scale or any other known and reputable organization. While private commercial drones exist and are used for a variety of purposes, there has been enough press associated with these drones that it seems unlikely that any aerial survey company would be continuing to operate drones over New Jersey. There have also been a number of one-time drone restrictions placed over areas, further reducing the probability that this is a misunderstanding caused by a private entity.
There have been claims that this could be part of a larger military, governmental or inter-agency program, perhaps some kind of conspiracy to distract Americans or test the resolve of people to endure disruption. However, none of these claims pass the smell test. They’re all just speculation.
What We Do Not Have:
Clear Video or Photographs – Admittedly, taking photos or videos of fast moving objects in the dark is difficult, so it’s understandable that most photos and videos would not be of a high enough quality to be at all conclusive. However, the lack of even a signal high quality and verifiable photo or video, showing the full drone and its structure, seems strange. After all, New Jersey is a heavily populated state and surely someone would have had the opportunity to take a photo or video with a high quality, low-light camera.
Today’s cell phone cameras are better than ever before. Assuming someone could get directly under a drone, under decent conditions, they have a good chance of snapping a highly recognizable and high quality photo. Moreover, with such publicity, there are specialized cameras that could certainly take high quality images. Thermal and night vision cameras are available and security cameras frequently feature 4k resolution and low light performance, yet we still have only the most grainy and poor quality footage of the alleged drones.
Reports of Radar Tracking – So far, we have received no reports of any civilian or military radar having confirmed detecting the mysterious drones. Of course, it could be pointed out that air traffic control radar has its limits when it comes to small and low flying aircraft. While this is true, if the drones in question were flying at a thousand feet or more and if they were as large as SUV’s (or in one cases, reported to be the size of a school bus) one would expect that air traffic control radar and surveillance radar would be able to see these drones, at least sporadically, and when they are near airports. Yet we have no reliable reports of FAA radar having detected the drones.
Whether or not civil air traffic control radar can detect drones, it would seem that military radar should be able to detect them. After all, the military has radar that is purpose-built to defend against small and low flying aircraft and special drone detection systems have been put into place at military installations and places of national security interest. It’s possible that the military might not always have their most sensitive radars trained in the skies over New Jersey, but in recent weeks, there has been increasing interest and the federal government has dispatched special drone detection radar to the state.
Much of the US is covered by the Joint Surveillance System. Although it is primarily designed for larger and higher flying targets, it is surprising no tracking at all has been accomplished for these large and high flying craft. There is such a site in New Jersey, in addition to the radars operated by airport and military units.
Still, there remain no reports of radar contact with the drones. There are a few possibilities here. Either it is being kept under wraps, which is possible for military radar but less likely for civilian radars. It is also possible the drones are smaller or lower flying than reported. Finally, and perhaps least likely, is that they are using advanced stealth technology, which is not something you’d expect from drones that have no problem displaying lights.
Signals Interception – While it is possible to have autonomous drones, the vast majority are command controlled by line of sight radio. It is also possible that a drone could be controlled by satellite or even by piggybacking control signals on civil 4g/5g infrastructure. What is striking here is that we have no reliable repots that any of these drones were transmitting any signals that could be intercepted. In the age of software defined radios and with such public interest, it’s strange nobody has intercepted radio signals.
Additionally, there have been efforts to do just that, including livestreams on YouTube of sky facing cameras and spectrum analyzer, plying the airwaves for suspicious signals. So far, nothing. This could be attributable to the fact that modern civilization is already noisy, when it comes to radio emissions. Still, it’s surprising that there have not been any intercepted signals.
Footage of Drone Swarms Coming From the Ocean – Many reports have been made that the drones are being launched from at sea, with accusations going so far as to claim an Iranian mothership. So far, we have seen plenty of anecdotes, even those of Coast Guard assets encountering the drones, flying in swarms, as they come in to land from the ocean. If there is any truth to the reports of massive swarms of drones, it would seem to imply that there must be some discrete launching ground, perhaps offshore.
Despite this, primary documentation of drones operating offshore, being launched from offshore or transiting the coastline on their way to the interior regions of the state remains lacking. A number of individuals have set up sensitive webcams on the coastline, in an attempt to spot the drones, but so far, we have no confirmed footage or any other evidence to prove this.
Detailed and Reliable Official Reports – Although we have scattered reports from officials, what is lacking id detailed and officially verifiable reports, such as “the state police perused a drone for 20 minutes before losing site as the drones appeared to duck behind a ridge, with subsequent attempts by local police departments to determine where they may have gone resulting in few leads.” The only official reports we have are sporadic and seem to be just transient sightings. Sure, we have heard anecdotes of police helicopters perusing drones and other such reports, but these remain hearsay with no official reports, directly from the officers or officials who perused the drones, being available at this time.
What We Do Have:
A Large Number Of Videos of Airplanes – A shocking (or perhaps not shocking) number of videos, in fact, most videos, show what is clearly a conventional aircraft, such as a 737, A320 or Cessna 172. A few show helicopters. This is the lions share of videos that are reported to show drones. Most clearly show civilian airliners. This even despite the fact that many contain commentary of people saying “What is that thing? Airplanes don’t fly like that” And yet, they clearly do. It may simply be that people do not look up in the sky enough or are just not attentive to it. Some videos show things like standard contrails and aircraft, with titles like “What are the drones spraying.”
The image bellow has been widely circulated as one of the drones over New Jersey. It appears to be a helicopter.
A Large Number of Videos Of Unknown Lights in the Sky – Not surprisingly, many, perhaps most of the videos out there show indeterminant lights in the sky. These short, low-quality and Shakey videos are often accompanied with bold descriptions of massive drones preforming impossible maneuvers or engaging in other strange activities. However, the actual objects in these short grainy videos are impossible to tell. Could it be an aircraft? A drone? The planet Venus? It could be any of those things.
The image bellow was provided by an eyewitness and claims to show several drones. Of course, these lights could be drones. They could be almost anything. This is true of many of the images and videos we have seen presented as evidence.
(Seattle Times / Associated Press Source)
A Few Videos That Appear to Show Drones – A minority of the videos posted do clearly, and unambiguously, show quadcopters or other aircraft which are not civilian jets, law enforcement helicopters or general aviation planes. So what does this mean? There are only a handful of videos and pictures which can be clearly stated to show quadcopter or other drone-type aircraft.
Without context there is very little that can be told by these. Most are very short, and none do a very good job of showing scale. In fact, in many cases it’s not even clear where the videos were taken or if they related to the recent reports of drone swarms over New Jersey. Despite all the videos posted, only a tiny number seem to show legitimate drones, and in most cases, it’s hard to tell if these are anything other than consumer-grade or perhaps light commercial drones.
Eyewitness Reports – This is primarily what we have. There are many eyewitnesses from all over the state and beyond. The reports are inconsistent, but they have gotten more extreme with time. Some are reports of drone swarms of 50 aircraft or more, while the size of the drones reported has only increased. Starting at the sign of a car, then an SUV and some reports claiming that the size of one of the drones was comparable to a school bus.
There have been a number of high profile reports, including some saying upwards of 50 drones were seen crossing the shoreline. Some of these reports have even come from high profile individuals, such as reporters and elected officials, including Rep. Chris Smith. Unfortunately, we don’t have much more than their stories. No officially verifiable reports nor documentary evidence has been produced.
Limited Official Records – Officially confirmed, recorded reports are fairly limited. We have plenty of reports of concerned citizens claiming to see drones, but what about professional, properly documented observations? There are very few. The most reliable reports seem to be those from the Picatinny Arsenal, where a number of reports exist that confirm that guards and air defense systems responded to reports of drones. This is something that has happened at a number of US military bases, and it is unclear if this is the result of curious drone operators, foreign adversaries or something else. In the case of the Picatinny arsenal, there are verifiable official reports, which is more than can be said for most circumstances.
There are also official reports that do not go into detail, but indicate that drones were detected over critical infrastructure, such as reservoirs and power plants. It is likely that at least a few of these are accurate, as such installations are used to air defense concerns. However, it remains unclear whether these were isolated incidents or related to the larger drone phenomena.
Another reliable report comes from a medical helicopter, which had to be diverted due to drone activity near its landing site. Such reports are highly reliable, but again, this does not necessarily mean that it is anything other than a symptom of too many irresponsible people playing with drones where they should not. It’s impossible to tie this event, with any certainty, to the larger reports of drone activity.
So based on these reports all we can say for sure is that there have indeed been at least some drones in restricted areas or under circumstances that cause disruption or concern. Unfortunately, this is not unusual and drone reports over sensitive facilities are now fairly common.
Reports of Launch Sites, Drone Ships and Crashes:
There have been some obvious things missing from the story. Despite the efforts and panic, nobody has been able to determine where the drones could be launched from or where they are landing. Reports of crashes have recently abounded, but nothing has been found.
A Launch Site, Such as a Drone Launching Ship – An obvious way of settling this situation would be to definitively determine where these drones are coming from, assuming they are coming from anywhere. Yet so far, for all the sporadic reports and claims, nobody has found any launch site. There have been high profile claims that the drones are being launched from a ship at sea, even claims that it is an Iranian mothership. Yet no ships have been detected offshore of New Jersey that could be a launch point. Some are saying it may be from a ship hundreds of miles off the coast, though this seems unlikely. In any case, the military says that this is not the case.
No primary footage of the drones being launched nor any reliable tracking data has come to light. There has been no proof of waves of drones crossing the coastline. Reports are that New Jersey state police and US Coast Guard have searched coastal areas and come up dry.
Reports of Crashes, but Nothing Found – There have been a number of reports of drones crashing or being shot down. Some of these include reports that a drone crashed after being perused by a police helicopter. There have been news reports of hazmat, bomb squad and police units being sent to investigate reported crash sites, but no debris or other material has been found. In fact, it’s hard to keep track of all the reports of crashes or landings. There were even false reports that a drone had crashed into the Empire State Building.
It sound be noted that previous cases of hysteria over UFO’s or other flying objects have frequently resulted in false reports of crashes. This is common and may be caused by the fact that a rapidly fading light in the sky or an object moving over a ridge or descending on the horizon may produce the illusion of crashing. There has also been confusion over a legitimate small plane crash in the area.
Other Exotic Ideas For Origins – There have been a number of more exotic and fanciful ideas that have been put out there, with no evidence at all to support them. The idea that the drones could be capable of travel underwater has not been supported by evidence. Claims that there could be an Iranian or Chinese submarine launching drones, that the drones have flown thousands of miles, or that they were deployed from orbit or from a large aircraft.
Technologies like drones that deploy smaller drones, submarine-launched drones, air-launched drones and other such concepts do exist, but do not fit the pattern of what has been seen over New Jersey and other states.
Drone Overflight of US Military Bases is A Problem:
In October the Wall Street Journal published a story about drones of various types seen over US military bases, around naval assets and other important locations of national security importance. Based on this and other reports, it appears to be absolutely true that drones have been seen over US military assets on numerous occasions. It’s hard to ascertain exactly the circumstances, and some commanders dismissed sightings as curious locals and hobbyists.
However, there have also been some unsettling reports of larger more advanced and higher endurance drones being detected, and even followed over US military bases. What does this mean? It’s likely at least some are amateurs, hobbyists or potential domestic trouble makers. There also exists the potential that a foreign adversary is attempting to test the US’s ability to intercept drones or to gain some kind of intelligence. It’s hard to say.
It’s certainly true that any drone incursion over US military bases or other critical infrastructure is disturbing. These locations are off limits to all but specially authorized drones and many commercial drone makers include things like geofencing or broadcasting of GPS locations, both for collision avoidance and to prevent abusive behavior like this.
However, whatever or whoever is causing invasions of airspace over military bases, there’s no indication of a connection to any of the reports in New Jersey or the Northeast in general.
Conclusion:
It’s not possible to say with any certainty whether the reports of drones over New Jersey, and now more Northeastern US States is indeed part of some kind of organized effort to surveil the country, test defenses or just spook the public. The potential that this is indeed a thing can’t yet be fully dismissed. What is clear, however, is that many and possibly most of the sightings are a combination of civilian aircraft and drones which have been send up as a response to the drone reports, such as law enforcement drones.
There may indeed be large drones swarming over New Jersey. It’s just impossible to know for sure, at the moment, and most of the “evidence” presented has only increased the confusion.